Ecological Indicators (Dec 2023)
Spatiotemporal dislocation of ecosystem supply and demand services from habitat quality under different development scenarios
Abstract
The uneven spatial–temporal distribution of ecosystem services in humid regions seriously hinders the achievement of regional ecological construction and sustainable development goals. However, most studies have ignored the mechanism of coupled water supply and demand, and there is no clear understanding of the relationship between habitat quality and water supply services under future land use/land cover (LULC). This study is based on the Han River (HR) Basin and integrates the PLUS and InVEST models to propose an integrated framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal changes in associated water production, habitat quality, and the current risk of water supply and demand under future land use changes. The results show that from 2000 to 2050, the construction land under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) is expanding, the proportion of forest and grassland is decreasing, and the habitat quality is decreasing from 0.7052 to 0.7046. Under the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), the increase in construction land has slowed, large areas of cropland land have been converted to forest land, and habitat quality has improved. Under the Ecological Development Scenario (EDS), the proportion of cropland and construction lands rises, and habitat quality declines the most (0.6923). In particular, water production is greater in areas of low habitat quality. The overall water supply of the HR basin has slightly decreased, and the water demand has increased significantly. The ecological deficit area of the upper HR has increased extensively from 2000 to 2020, and the risk of the basin's water supply demand has increased. This study proposes relevant supply and demand risk mitigation strategies to enhance regional coordinated development, which can provide a scientific basis for water resource management planning in wetland areas.
