Assessment of the discount rate and determination of the fair value of the company in strategic investment analysis

Abstract

In the conditions of global uncertainty, the conditions of the external and internal environment of the functioning of companies and sectors of the economy are significantly changing. The emergence of new challenges and threats requires the adjustment of existing development strategies, makes relevant methods and models for assessing the fair value of enterprises in the real sector of the economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate and systematize modern approaches to estimating the discount rate when using them in strategic investment analysis based on the concept of company value management. At the first stage of the study, the following models were used for evaluation: weighted average cost of capital, valuation of financial assets, Gordon’s dividend model, return on equity, the multiplier method and the expert method. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods and models used are revealed. The most preferred option is the discount rate equal to 8.55% and calculated according to the financial asset valuation model. At the second stage, the fair value of shares and capital of PJSC Severstal was assessed in the following sequence: calculating the value of shares based on the Gordon dividend model; using free cash flow indicators, weighted average cost of capital and the cash flow discounting method; analyzing the sensitivity of the company’s share price depending on the growth rate of free cash flow and weighted average cost of capital; comparison of the results of the evaluation of the fair value of the shares of the analyzed company obtained by various methods; preparation of conclusions on the fair value of shares and the investment attractiveness of the company. The main results of the study are the author’s methodology for assessing the discount rate and fair value of public companies, including the identification of advantages, disadvantages and further improvement of the tools used for strategic investment analysis. Unlike the works of other authors, the study established the causal conditionality of the discount rate and the results of the fair value assessment of a public joint-stock company, based on the subjective opinion of a specialist making decisions in the field of investment analysis. The practical significance of the work is represented by the methodological approaches developed by the author to assess the discount rate and fair value of companies in the real sector of the economy. Further research of the author is aimed at improving the methods of modern strategic analysis, developing recommendations for the identification, assessment and analysis of investment risks

Keywords

• value-based management
• strategic investment analysis
• discount rate
• fair value
• methods and models
• valuation