Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features which are relevant to their study. Next, methodological issues are discussed based on a review of historical and current academic studies, press reports and case studies built on the results of focus groups and interviews with experts. These materials are used to develop a methodology, build indicators and establish plausible scenarios. In third place, conceptual and practical issues regarding the border are revised, including, foremost, Colombian policies regarding this topic. In the fourth place, economic, political and military risks in the Colombo-Venezuelan border are assessed as well as the particular challenges the border context poses for these aspects. Likewise the impact of COVID-19 need also to be taken into account in any realistic risk calculations to be made in these regions. Finally, the theoretical approach of the article is used to examine three future potential scenarios: one possible, one probable and one desirable. The conclusion is drawn that, due to current developments in the border, migration and crime are expected to increase, while the economic outlook will worsen in the short term.

Keywords

• territorial settings
• scenarios
• colombo-venezuelan border
• prospective
• border security
• country risk