Determining the Resilience components with an emphasis on Iran's Economic Vulnerability

Abstract

Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effective factors in Iran's economic resilience index. According to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the economic resilience components and indicator factors by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. In the presence of 63 variables, seven variables were identified which include: risk index, oil revenue to total government revenue ratio, the growth rate of government oil revenues, inflation rate, the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, the budget deficit to GDP ratio and the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, as the most important variables determining the resilience of Iran's economy. Therefore, it is recommended to policymakers to reduce the vulnerability of economic sectors, by taking into account the impact of these variables.

Keywords

• resilience components
• vulnerability
• grounded theory
• bayesian model averaging
• iran's economy