Characteristic Analysis and Forecast of Sea Fog Weather in Rizhao City

Abstract

Large quantity of observational data from ground and sounding meteorological observation data, ocean station observation data, ERA reanalysis data are used to count the sea fog process that occurred during April to July in Rizhao City from 1988 to 2019 altogether 32 years in this paper. The synoptic characteristics of the sea fog and their formation mechanism are statistically analyzed, and furthermore the main meteorological elements affecting the formation of sea fog in Rizhao area and their combined effects are put forward. The results indicate that sea fog occur in Rizhao area is most likely under the control of several weather conditions, such as the west of transition high to sea, the Pacific subtropical high ridge or the front of low or trough of the eastern China in spring and summer. Under the control of these synoptic characteristics, the direction and speed of wind, dew-point temperature, atmospheric temperature, SST, stratification stability of these hydrometeorological elements play an important role in the formation of sea fog. On these basis, the method of discriminance analysis is used to establish of discriminant equation for sea fog forecast. Through the forecast testing, the statistical forecasting method of sea fog has a great application, the forecast accuracy is between 88% and 94%. It can be used for short-term forecast of sea fog characteristics in Rizhao City, providing services for industry, agriculture, fishery production, sea and land transportation.

Keywords

• sea fog
• weather elements
• hydrometeorological elements
• characteristic analysis
• fisher two-level discriminant analysis