How does increasing temperature affect the sub-annual distribution of monthly rainfall?

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between temperature and sub-annual rainfall patterns using long-term monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1920 to 2018 in Australia. A parameter ( τ ) is used to measure the evenness of temporal rainfall distribution within each year, with τ = 0 indicating a uniform pattern. The study examines the relationship between τ and temperature for each year, considering whether it was warmer or cooler than average across five climate zones (CZs) in Australia, including tropical, arid, and three temperate climate classes. This study discovered a considerable association between annual maximum temperature and the distribution of monthly rainfall, with high temperatures resulting in greater variation (as represented by larger τ values) in the sub-annual distribution of monthly rainfall throughout all CZs, particularly in arid regions with τ values ranging from 0.27 to 0.52. In contrast, regions with temperate climates without dry seasons had a lower and narrower range of τ , from 0.15 to 0.26. This variability in rainfall distribution makes managing water resources more challenging in arid regions in Australia.

Keywords

• rainfall-temperature scaling
• seasonal rainfall
• Australia
• climate change