Transmission Dynamics and Effectiveness of Control Measures during COVID-19 Surge, Taiwan, April–August 2021

Abstract

An unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases in Taiwan in May 2021 led the government to implement strict nationwide control measures beginning May 15. During the surge, the government was able to bring the epidemic under control without a complete lockdown despite the cumulative case count reaching >14,400 and >780 deaths. We investigated the effectiveness of the public health and social measures instituted by the Taiwan government by quantifying the change in the effective reproduction number, which is a summary measure of the ability of the pathogen to spread through the population. The control measures that were instituted reduced the effective reproduction number from 2.0–3.3 to 0.6–0.7. This decrease was correlated with changes in mobility patterns in Taiwan, demonstrating that public compliance, active case finding, and contact tracing were effective measures in preventing further spread of the disease.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Transmission dynamics
• control measures
• Taiwan
• SARS-CoV-2
• coronavirus disease