THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF AN EVENTUAL OIL PRICE SHOCK WITH A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

Abstract

Energy issues are taking an increasingly important place in the various global agendas and there is no longer any doubt that the competition on energy will have repercussions all over the world. These repercussions could upset global balances and which can be economic, political and social. The purpose of this work is to assess the impact of the increase in petroleum products prices on the Moroccan economy. The proposed CGE model used for this study is based on the 2015 social accounting matrix. The results show that a gradual increase in the price of oil induces a deterioration of the main economic agents, household and government incomes and savings, an increase in the prices of products sold on the domestic market and a drop in exports felt at the level of oil-intensive products. These results also reveal the dependence and a great instability of the Moroccan economy with regards to changes in oil prices. In the event of a rise in oil prices, the country will be greatly destabilized, which will have repercussions on the budgetary balance and paving the way for economic and social difficulties.

Keywords

• energy
• cge model
• scenario
• increasing
• oil price
• economic agent