A study of trends in body morphology, overweight, and obesity in Chinese adults aged 40–59 years

Abstract

Abstract Objective To reveal the changing pattern of anthropometry of middle-aged adults aged 40–59 in China from 2000–2020, and to predict the development trend in the next decade, to provide a reference basis for curbing the prevalence of overweight and obesity in them. Methods A grey GM(1,1) prediction model was established for the cross-sectional data on anthropometric measures of 422,851 adults obtained from five series of national physical fitness surveillance in China. Results 1) From 2000 to 2020, all anthropometric indicators of middle-aged people aged 40–59 years in China maintained growth, with waist circumference increasing at the highest rate, weight at the second highest rate, and height at the slowest rate; 2) Overweight and obesity rates are increasing rapidly, with an average annual increase of 0.37 percentage points and 0.30 percentage points, with a greater increase for men than for women. Conclusion Without stronger interventions, overweight and obesity rates among middle-aged adults are likely to continue to increase in the future, and coordinated efforts are needed to slow down the obesity epidemic and improve the physical health of middle-aged adults.

Keywords

• Anthropometry
• Middle-aged adults
• Dynamic change
• Prediction
• GM(1,1) model
• Overweight and obesity