Human Error Analysis and Fatality Prediction in Maritime Accidents

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to underscore the significance of human error as a dominant cause of maritime accidents. The research is based on a comprehensive analysis of 247 maritime accidents, with the aim being to identify human failures occurring during onboard and port activities, as well as during the supervision process. The first step of the analysis was facilitating the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) as an advanced analytical tool for the identification and categorisation of human factors. Based on coding process, the most critical areas of human error are identified, based on the process of risk evaluation and assessment. Furthermore, a prediction model was developed for predicting the probability of fatality in a maritime accident. This model was constructed using logistic regression, considering the predominant causal factors and their interplay. Lastly, a set of preventive measures aimed at enhancing the efficiency and safety of maritime transport is provided.

Keywords

• maritime safety
• human error
• linear regression
• HFACS
• maritime accident
• risk assessment