Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Abstract

Heat extremes and associated impacts are considered the most pressing issue for German regional governments with respect to climate adaptation. We explore the potential of a unique high-resolution, convection-permitting (2.8 m), multi-GCM (global climate model) ensemble with COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling) regional simulations (1971–2100) over Germany regarding heat extremes and related impacts. We find a systematically reduced cold bias especially in summer in the convection-permitting simulations compared to the driving simulations with a grid size of 7 km and parametrized convection. The projected increase in temperature and its variance favors the development of longer and hotter heat waves, especially in late summer and early autumn. In a 2 ∘C (3 ∘C) warmer world, a 26 % (100 %) increase in the heat wave magnitude index is anticipated. Human heat stress (universal thermal climate index (UTCI) > 32 ∘C) and region-specific parameters tailored to climate adaptation revealed a dependency on the major landscapes, resulting in significantly higher heat exposure in flat regions such as the Rhine Valley, accompanied by the strongest absolute increase. A nonlinear, exponential increase is anticipated for parameters characterizing strong heat stress (UTCI > 32 ∘C, tropical nights, very hot days). Providing region-specific and tailored climate information, we demonstrate the potential of convection-permitting simulations to facilitate improved impact studies and narrow the gap between climate modeling and stakeholder requirements for climate adaptation.