پژوهشهای راهبردی مسائل اجتماعی ایران (Dec 2023)
Examining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in the Country's Provinces: Secondary Analysis of 2011-2021 Statistics
Abstract
Introduction Recent statistics reveal a concerning increase in suicide rates, particularly during the 2010s in Iran. What's noteworthy is the correlation between this rise in suicide rates and economic shifts during the same period. An examination of the country's economic indicators from 2011 to 2021 highlights deterioration in economic conditions, particularly evidenced by escalating inflation rates, the Gini coefficient, and unemployment. Essentially, the upward trajectory of these indicators coincides with a significant surge in suicide rates across the country. Consequently, the pivotal question driving this research was the extent to which economic conditions influenced the surge in suicide rates in Iran and whether variations in suicide rates among the country's provinces could be elucidated by economic factors. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to "explore the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and suicide rates among the country's provinces" with a focus on analyzing provincial statistics from 2011 to 2021. Materials & Methods This research adopted a documentary method and relied on secondary analysis. Two sets of data were utilized: suicide-related data sourced from the Iranian Forensic Medical Organization and economic indicators obtained from the Iranian Statistics Center. These indicators encompassed GDP, Gini coefficient, unemployment rate, economic participation rate, and inflation rate. The study encompassed a 10-year period from 2011 to 2021, during which these data were scrutinized to address the fundamental research inquiries. The unit of analysis in this study was "province", encompassing all 31 provinces of the country. The aim was to comprehensively compare the statistics related to the aforementioned indicators and their developments across these provinces. SPSS software was employed for data analysis. It is important to note that this research considered both the average of the indicators during the examined years and their changes over this period. One limitation of this research pertained to the discussion of the data and statistics used. The study relied on official statistics related to suicide and economic variables, which might, at times, lack complete reliability due to factors, such as confidentiality or security. However, given the statistical constraints and the absence of alternative reliable information, this study assumed the veracity of the provided statistics. The authors declared that the validity of this information was assumed based on the credibility of the organizations providing it. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The descriptive findings of this study revealed a consistent upward trend in the suicide rate in Iran from 2011 to 2021 with a notable surge during this period. Specifically, the suicide rate escalated from 0.035 in 2011 to 0.06 in 2021. Notably, this increase in suicide rates coincided with economic changes during the same period. Furthermore, the results of the regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation between macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, unemployment rate, and inflation rate, and the propensity for suicide. These economic factors accounted for a substantial portion of the variations in suicide rates among the country's provinces, explaining nearly 44% of the observed changes. Consequently, it was evident that macroeconomic indicators had exerted a decisive influence on social behaviors, including the inclination toward high-risk social actions. Economic instability had led to social distress, anxiety, and heightened societal tension. Factors, such as diminished employment opportunities, prolonged unemployment, and economic uncertainty, had engendered feelings of disillusionment, hopelessness, and a decline in optimism within the society. Consequently, individuals, feeling unable to cope with failure and disappointment and perceiving the society as economically unstable, had resorted to suicide as a form of self-punishment and a response to the prevailing economic instability.
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