Analysis of Landslide Vulnerability in Chefchaouen Using a Statistical Approach SIG

Abstract

Context and background In the Rif region of northern Morocco, terrain instabilities pose significant social, economic, and environmental challenges. The city of Chefchaouen, located in the heart of the Rif mountain range, is particularly prone to landslides and slope instability due to its complex geology, geographic location, and periodic intense rainfall. These factors frequently trigger landslides, causing damage and disruption. Goal and Objectives The primary goal is to create a landslide susceptibility map to support effective land-use management and risk assessment. The objectives include: Identifying and analyzing key factors contributing to landslides. Utilizing landslide susceptibility mapping to guide risk management strategies.Minimizing the socio-economic impacts of terrain instabilities in Chefchaouen. Methodology A static method was used to assess nine conditioning factors for landslides: geology, slope, land use, altitude, aspect, proximity to roads and rivers, soil type, and precipitation. Data collection included a landslide inventory compiled by the urban municipality of Chefchaouen, high-resolution satellite imagery, and field verifications, identifying 400 instances of terrain instability. The dataset was split into two parts: 70% for training a predictive model and 30% for testing the model's performance using the AUC (Area Under Curve) metric. Slope exposure (orientation of a slope relative to geographic north) emerged as the factor with the highest prediction rate, at 8.711. Results The study produced a landslide susceptibility map that serves as a vital decision-making tool. This map highlights areas at risk and supports the development of risk management and land-use planning strategies, helping to mitigate the socio-economic consequences of terrain instability in Chefchaouen. Context and background In the Rif region of northern Morocco, terrain instabilities pose significant social, economic, and environmental challenges. The city of Chefchaouen, located in the heart of the Rif mountain range, is particularly prone to landslides and slope instability due to its complex geology, geographic location, and periodic intense rainfall. These factors frequently trigger landslides, causing damage and disruption. Goal and Objectives The primary goal is to create a landslide susceptibility map to support effective land-use management and risk assessment. The objectives include: Identifying and analyzing key factors contributing to landslides. Utilizing landslide susceptibility mapping to guide risk management strategies.Minimizing the socio-economic impacts of terrain instabilities in Chefchaouen. Methodology A static method was used to assess nine conditioning factors for landslides: geology, slope, land use, altitude, aspect, proximity to roads and rivers, soil type, and precipitation. Data collection included a landslide inventory compiled by the urban municipality of Chefchaouen, high-resolution satellite imagery, and field verifications, identifying 400 instances of terrain instability. The dataset was split into two parts: 70% for training a predictive model and 30% for testing the model's performance using the AUC (Area Under Curve) metric. Slope exposure (orientation of a slope relative to geographic north) emerged as the factor with the highest prediction rate, at 8.711. Results The study produced a landslide susceptibility map that serves as a vital decision-making tool. This map highlights areas at risk and supports the development of risk management and land-use planning strategies, helping to mitigate the socio-economic consequences of terrain instability in Chefchaouen. Context and background In the Rif region of northern Morocco, terrain instabilities pose significant social, economic, and environmental challenges. The city of Chefchaouen, located in the heart of the Rif mountain range, is particularly prone to landslides and slope instability due to its complex geology, geographic location, and periodic intense rainfall. These factors frequently trigger landslides, causing damage and disruption. Goal and Objectives The primary goal is to create a landslide susceptibility map to support effective land-use management and risk assessment. The objectives include: Identifying and analyzing key factors contributing to landslides. Utilizing landslide susceptibility mapping to guide risk management strategies.Minimizing the socio-economic impacts of terrain instabilities in Chefchaouen. Methodology A static method was used to assess nine conditioning factors for landslides: geology, slope, land use, altitude, aspect, proximity to roads and rivers, soil type, and precipitation. Data collection included a landslide inventory compiled by the urban municipality of Chefchaouen, high-resolution satellite imagery, and field verifications, identifying 400 instances of terrain instability. The dataset was split into two parts: 70% for training a predictive model and 30% for testing the model's performance using the AUC (Area Under Curve) metric. Slope exposure (orientation of a slope relative to geographic north) emerged as the factor with the highest prediction rate, at 8.711. Results The study produced a landslide susceptibility map that serves as a vital decision-making tool. This map highlights areas at risk and supports the development of risk management and land-use planning strategies, helping to mitigate the socio-economic consequences of terrain instability in Chefchaouen.

Keywords

• Landslides, Approche statique, SIG, Vulnerability, Chefchaouen, Maroc