Temporal changes in precipitation and correlation with large climate indicators in the Hengshao Drought Corridor, China

Abstract

Understanding the lagged correlations between regional precipitation and large scale climate indicators (LCI) is crucial for water management and drought risk assessment. Copula functions are commonly used to quantify the relationship between precipitation and these factors. However, existing studies often neglect monsoon inland areas and lack quantification of the lagged correlations of precipitation at the monthly scale. To address these limitations, this study constructed a 3-dimensional vine copula-based model to assess the impact of large scale climatic change on regional precipitation. The analysis focused on the Hengshao Drought Corridor (HDC), the driest region in Hunan Province, China. The results indicate that precipitation in this region is influenced primarily by the Pacific Ocean’s circulation pattern, particularly the Niño1 + 2 and Niño3 indices, with a 2 ∼ 3 month lag. The R-Vine Copula provided the best fit when identifying lagged correlations, but due to its fitting center, it did not perform as well as the C-Vine Copula in generating stochastic simulated precipitation. The study revealed that the HDC receives more precipitation when the Niño1 + 2 and Niño3 are asynchronous, but less precipitation when they are synchronous, making the area more susceptible to drought events. These findings have implications for the HDC and other monsoon inland regions worldwide, providing insights to cope with climate extremes and develop appropriate strategies.

Keywords

• Precipitation Change
• Lagged Correlation
• El Niño-Southern Oscillation
• Vine Copula
• Hengshao Drought Corridor