Novel nomograms for predicting the risk of low distal bone strength: development and validation in a Chinese population-based observational study

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aims to develop nomogram models based on the speed of sound (SOS) measurements results along with demographic information to predict the risk of low bone strength (LBS) of radius appropriate to the Chinese population of a broad age spectrum. Methods A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in 5 outpatient clinics located in Zhejiang, the southern part of China. A total of 38,699 participants from 2013 to 2017 were included. Baseline measurements included SOS of the distal radius and clinical risk factor evaluation. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate prognosis and identify independent predictive factors, which were then utilized to establish nomograms for predicting the low bone strength of radius. The discrimination and calibration of nomograms were validated using the calibration plots, the decision curve analysis (DCA), and the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). Results A total of 19,845 of the 38,904 participants ranged in age from 10 to 88 years were selected in this process. LBP nomogram model 1 was constructed based on age, weight, height, BMI, and gender. LBP nomogram model 2 was constructed based on age, height, BMI, and gender. The AUCs for model 1 and model 2 were 0.838 (95% CI: 0.832–0.844) and 0.837 (95% CI: 0.831–0.843), respectively. High-quality calibration plots and DCA in nomogram models were noticed, indicated that the constructed nomogram models were clinically useful. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the nomograms established in this study could effectively evaluate the high-risk population groups of distal radius fracture in China.

Keywords

• Bone strength
• Nomogram
• Prognostic model
• Quantitative ultrasound measurement (QUS)