Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Three <i>Cytospora</i> Species in Xinjiang, China

Abstract

Xinjiang is an important forest and fruit production area in China, and Cytospora canker, caused by the genus Cytospora Ehrenb., has caused serious losses to forestry production in Xinjiang. In this study, we constructed ensemble models based on Biomod2 to assess the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma, C. nivea, and C. mali in Xinjiang, China and their changes under different climate change scenarios, using species occurrence data and four types of environmental variables: bioclimatic, topographic, NDVI, and soil. The model performance assessment metrics (AUC and TSS) indicated that the ensemble models are highly reliable. The results showed that NDVI had the most important effect on the distribution of all three species, but there were differences in the response patterns, and bioclimatic factors such as temperature and precipitation also significantly affected the distribution of the three species. C. chrysosperma showed the broadest ecological adaptation and the greatest potential for expansion. C. nivea and C. mali also showed expansion trends, but to a lesser extent. The overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three species increased over time and with an intensification of the climate scenarios, especially under the high-emission SSP585 scenario. The centroids of the geographical distribution for all three species generally shifted towards higher latitude regions in the northeast, reflecting their response to climate warming. C. chrysosperma may become a more prevalent forest health threat in the future, and an increase in the overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three species may lead to an increased risk of multiple infections. These findings provide an important basis for understanding and predicting the distribution and spread of the genus Cytospora in Xinjiang and are important for the development of effective forest disease prevention and control strategies.

Keywords

• ecological niche model
• climate change
• potential geographical distribution
• ensemble model