An Online Grey-Box Model Based on Unscented Kalman Filter to Predict Temperature Profiles in Smart Buildings

Abstract

Nearly 40% of primary energy consumption is related to the usage of energy in Buildings. Energy-related data such as indoor air temperature and power consumption of heating/cooling systems can be now collected due to the widespread diffusion of Internet-of-Things devices. Such energy data can be used (i) to train data-driven models than learn the thermal properties of buildings and (ii) to predict indoor temperature evolution. In this paper, we present a Grey-box model to estimate thermal dynamics in buildings based on Unscented Kalman Filter and thermal network representation. The proposed methodology has been applied in two different buildings with two different thermal network discretizations to test its accuracy in indoor air temperature prediction. Due to a lack of a real-world data sampled by Internet of Things (IoT) devices, a realistic data-set has been generated using the software Energy+, by referring to real industrial building models. Results on synthetic and realistic data show the accuracy of the proposed methodology in predicting indoor temperature trends up to the next 24 h with a maximum error lower than 2 °C, considering one year of data with different weather conditions.

Keywords

• building simulation
• Unscented Kalman Filter
• grey-box model
• parameter estimation
• thermal dynamics