Computation of a probabilistic uranium concentration map of Norway: A digital expert elicitation approach employing random forests and artificial neural networks

Abstract

We compute the first probabilistic uranium concentration map of Norway. Such a map can support mineral exploration, geochemical mapping, or the assessment of the health risk to the human population. We employ multiple non-linear regression to fill the information gaps in sparse airborne and ground-borne uranium data sets. We mimic an expert elicitation by employing Random Forests and Multi-layer Perceptrons as digital agents equally qualified to find regression models. In addition to the regression, we use supervised classification to produce conservative and alarmistic classified maps outlining regions with different potential for the local occurrence of uranium concentration extremes. Embedding the introduced digital expert elicitation in a Monte Carlo approach we compute an ensemble of plausible uranium concentrations maps of Norway discretely quantifying the uncertainty resulting from the choice of the regression algorithm and the chosen parametrization of the used regression algorithms. We introduce digitated glyphs to visually integrate all computed maps and their associated uncertainties in a loss-free manner to fully communicate our probabilistic results to map perceivers. A strong correlation between mapped geology and uranium concentration is found, which could be used to optimize future sparse uranium concentration sampling to lower extrapolation components in future map updates.

Keywords

• Expert elicitation
• Uncertainty quantification
• Monte Carlo
• Model uncertainty
• Uranium concentration
• Norway