Vestnik RUDN. International Relations (Dec 2015)
Latin America: the Right Storm for the Left Turn
Abstract
The article deals with the analysis of the challenges for the Latin American left-wing governments throughout the electoral campaigns of 2014-2015. Up to the moment these electoral campaigns and their results were not researched and analyzed in the scientific literature. However, it was not the only aim of the article. The authors consider necessary to explain how the achievements made by the Left-Wing political forces may affect and determine the general political situation and international panorama of the region. Consequently, the special attention is paid to the analysis of the electoral rallies in some key countries for the Left-Wing block as whole. These countries are Brazil, Uruguay, Chile and Salvador as they represent different patterns of Left-Wing turn in the region. As almost all of them form part of some Latin American subregional integration groups, the authors also make some prospects about the possible shifts in the system of international relations in the region as a consequence of these electoral campaigns. Within the marks of the article the authors analyze possible transformations of South American Common market (MERCOSUR) and the Bolivarian Alliance for Americas (ALBA) and explain how the results of elections of 2014 would affect the envolvement of some Leftist governments into these integration groups. According to authors’ criteria, the Pirric triumph in Salvador should inevitably put in question the plans of Salvadoran close envolvement into the ALBA. Additionally, the visible weakening of Leftist government in Brazil will bring the redetermining of its relationship with the USA and can also affect Brazil’s leading role in the Mercosur. The authors confront the statistical data and the results of elections with the known facts of political behavior of Left-Wing governments in respect of the economical and political integration and relationship with the USA, China and Russia. The main object of the research was to measure the priorities for the foreign policy of Uruguay, Salvador and Brazil with a purpose to conclude the shape of their future political and economical participation in blocs and groups. As the official political declarations not always correspond to the real behavior of many governments, we also often confront them with the political remarks made by some politicians and governmental officials trying to understand the authentic line of their foreign policy determined by different factors.
