An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Special Line Shunting Via Fuzzy Theory

Abstract

Railway special line shunting safety is a complicated systemic topic, which is full of uncertainty and dynamic; safety is determined by numerous aspects, including human, management, environmental, and equipment factors. Many railway risk assessment techniques currently used are comparatively mature tools. However, in many circumstances, the application of these tools gives unsatisfactory results because the risk data are incomplete or involve high levels of uncertainty. Because risk assessment technology has its own applicability that it may not suitable for the three sub-processes of risk assessment, it is difficult to obtain ideal effects by using a single tool in the risk assessment process. This paper presents an integrated approach for conducting special-line shunting risk assessment, using fishbone diagram analysis, fuzzy reasoning approaches, and a fuzzy analytical hierarchy tool, which can evaluate both qualitative and quantitative risk data efficiently and effectively. The outcomes of risk assessment are represented as risk degrees and risk levels, providing railway safety risk managers and engineers with tools to improve their safety management standards. A case study is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results reveal that the proposed model can effectively and efficiently assess risks associated with a special-line shunting system, yielding more reliable and realistic solutions.

Keywords

• risk assessment
• fishbone diagram
• fuzzy reasoning approach
• fuzzy analytic hierarchy process