Ethiopian energy consumption forecast

Abstract

This Energy consumption forecast is vital and has a great economic impact. Mathematical models developed for energy forecast can also serve as inputs for further studies. This study is intended to develop an energy consumption forecast using the grey prediction model GM (1,1), based on the actual energy consumption data from the year 2008 to 2017. The models are developed for the total, solid biomass, oil products, and electrical energy consumption; and the accuracy for each model is ratified. These developed forecasting models were used to anticipate six-year Ethiopian consumption of major energy types. The outcomes of models for all four energy consumption types show an upward trend; simulating and forecasting are found suited with the grey system model with development coefficient values less than 0.3 for all selected energy forms.