Assessment of the effect of climate change on vegetative growth of major crops in Bangladesh using DSSAT

Abstract

A number of studies listed the potential consequences of climate change on crop agriculture and food security emanated from global warming, particularly in developing countries including Bangladesh. In this study, the effect of climate change on growth parameters of rice and non-rice crops was investigated. MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with observed climate data was used to generate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario B2 and A2. Wheat, rice, and potato growth parameters were simulated using CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice, and SUBSTOR-Potato models under projected change in future climatic conditions. Leaf area index (LAI), aboveground dry matter (ADM), and harvest index (HI) were found to be influenced by climate change. The effect of climate change was higher for wheat growth compared to rice and potato. The predicted change in crop growth parameters indicated the potential risk of food security in Bangladesh in the verge of increasing population and diminishing land resources. The results of this study can be used as a guideline to adopt climate change coping mechanisms to ensure future food security. [Fundam Appl Agric 2017; 2(3.000): 317-325]

Keywords

• Climate change; MAGICC/SCENGEN model; DSSAT model; Leaf area index; Aboveground dry matter; Harvest index; Food security