Three-Dimensional Trends Superposition in Digital Innovation Life Cycle Model

Abstract

The concept of innovative products’ life cycle as a superposition of growing interest in their consumption, as well as processes of falling demand, is substantiated in this study. This study found that such trends in the life cycle of innovations are unified. The development of the economic and mathematical model is based on the method of these trends’ superposition. The result of this superposition is the unity of the mathematical representation of simultaneously occurring processes in the rise in demand for innovative products, consumer disappointment or crowding out by competitive innovative solutions. The mathematical description of each process is an original mathematical form that reflects the diffusion phenomena, which differs in the expression of the mathematical model parameters in the indicators form of real-time series of innovative products consumption. The principle of superposition and the unity of trends in the growth and decline of consumer interest in innovative products makes it possible to proactively establish the formation towards changing trends in the dynamics of innovative product consumption. These distinctive features of the model ensure transition from a qualitative to a quantitative representation of the Gartner cycle. This allows the use of the developed model to solve the problems of forecasting the consumption of innovations. In the growth phase, the processes of transition to the plateau of innovation success, the reversal of the growth trend and the onset of recession were identified. In the phase of movement to recession of the hype, the model makes it possible to predict the time of transition to an increase in consumption and to a plateau of innovation success. A special case of the proposed model is the cycle curve developed by Gartner in a descriptive form. The mathematical representation of such a case expands the applicability of the model to quantitative indicators of innovation processes.

Keywords

• change management
• cycles
• digital economy
• economic and mathematical model
• innovation management