Heliyon (Mar 2024)
A nomogram model based on the systemic immune-inflammation index to predict the risk of venous thromboembolism in elderly patients after hip fracture: A retrospective cohort study
Abstract
Background and objectives: Venous thromboembolism (VTE), encompassing deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and secondary pulmonary embolism (PE), represents a significant complication post-hip fracture in the elderly. It is a prevalent cause of VTE-related complications, prolonged hospitalization, and mortality. This study aimed to investigate the potential of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) as a predictive marker for VTE in older patients following hip fracture. Methods: The study was structured as an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort analysis. A total of 346 elderly patients diagnosed with hip fracture were included. We retrospectively collated clinical and laboratory data for these patients. Using the bootstrap method, the patients were divided in a 7:3 ratio into a training cohort (DVT group = 170 patients; no-DVT group = 72 patients) and an internal validation cohort (DVT group = 81 patients; no-DVT group = 23 patients). In the training cohort, relevant indices were initially identified using univariate analysis. Subsequently, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic analysis was employed to determine significant potential independent risk factors (P < 0.05). A dynamic online diagnostic nomogram was developed, with its discriminative ability assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The nomogram's accuracy was further appraised using calibration plots. The clinical utility of the nomogram was evaluated through decision curve analysis (DCA) and corroborated by internal validation within the training set. Results: SII emerged as the sole independent risk factor identified from the multivariate logistic analysis of the training cohort and was incorporated into the VTE diagnostic nomogram for older patients' post-hip fracture. The nomogram demonstrated AUC values of 0.648 in the training cohort and 0.545 in the internal testing cohort. Calibration curves corroborated the close alignment of the nomogram's predicted outcomes with the ideal curve, indicating consistency between predicted and actual outcomes. The DCA curve suggested that all patients could derive benefit from this model. These findings were also validated in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The systemic immune-inflammation index is a robust predictor of venous thromboembolism in elderly patients following hip fracture, underscoring its potential as a valuable tool in clinical practice.
