Timing and Business Cycle Analysis in OPEC Member Countries Through Markov Switching Autoregressive Model

Abstract

There are two approaches for timing business cycles, namely "growth cycle" and "classical cycle". Though different, these approaches are complementary. This paper studies business cycles timing in 10 OPEC members[1] based on Markov Switching Model, introduced by Hamilton (1989). The results show that after Qatar, Iran suffered the least probability of recession and enjoyed the highest probability of boom. Iran's economic growth among 10 countries however has been the ninth, putting it just above Nigeria. [1]. The OPEC member's studies here are: Iran, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Emirates Arabia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Venezuela and Algeria. These were no data available on Iraq and Angola.

Keywords

• business cycles
• opec members countries
• markov switching model