Seismic hazard analysis for Sutami Dam using probabilistic method

Abstract

One of the largest structures in Malang is Sutami dam. It was built in 1964 to 1973 and began to be operated in 1977. Considering the age of the dam which is over 40 years and the high risk of earthquake in this area, it is necessary to analyze its seismic hazard using an updated data. The probablilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) was employed to obtain peak ground acceleration (PGA). The deagregation was conducted to obtain the most influencing magnitudes (M) and and distance (R) values affecting the dam. The result indicates that the area of the dam has the PGA of 0.261 for 500 years return period, 0.41 for 2500 years return period and 0.586 for 10,000 years return period of eartquakes. The magnitude of 5.93-6.17 for the distance of 22-44 km are considered as the most influencing earthquake for the dam. Due to the lack of ground motion data for Sutami dam, the ground motion from other earthquake might be utilised such as Morgan Hill earthquake 1984, Whittier Narrow earthquake 1987, Chalfant Valley earthquake 1986, Georgia USSR earthquake 1991, Northridge earthquake 1994, or San Fernando earthquake 1971.