Verimlilik, Ücretler ve İşsizlik Oranları Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneği(The Analysis of the Relation Between Productivity, Wages and Unemployment Rates: The Case of Turkey)

Abstract

Many matters such as efficient wages theory, bargaining theory, seeking work theory and contracts theories in macro economy has focused on relations among productivity, wages and unemployment. In this study, it is tried to obtain existing relations among those three variables for 1945-2005 period by time serial methods. In the long run, co-integration relation among productivity, wages and unemployment could not be determined. However, structural breaking in the serials of reel wages, productivity and uneployment has been determined in the years of 1966, 1967 and 1968 as a result of breaking test developed by Bai and Perron. The existence of structural breaking do not affect co-integration relation among variables. Because of this, data set is separated into two sub period: 1945-1966 and 1969-2005. As a result of co-integration test done for sub periods, co-integration relation among variables is fixed. Because existence of co-integration requires at least one Granger causality in the system, causality relation among variables is seen in the results of analysis done.

Keywords

• Verimlilik
• Reel Ücret
• İşsizlik
• Yapısal Kırılma
• Nedensellik
• Productivity
• Reel Wages
• Unemployment
• Structural Breaking
• Causality