Baltic Journal of Economic Studies (Sep 2024)
FORMATION OF A NEW PARADIGM OF GLOBAL POLITICAL AND MIGRATION PROCESSES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE
Abstract
The events of February 2022, related to the military aggression of the Russian Federation and a full-scale attack on Ukraine, became the greatest catastrophe of the twenty-first century and the most brutal war on European soil since the Second World War, and is gradually being defined as World War III in terms of its impact on global political and economic relations and the use of military weapons. Although no final assessment has been made (the war is ongoing), the undeniable consequence of Russian aggression has been the violation of the world order built after World War II and the risk of global chaos. One of the most powerful consequences of the war was an unprecedented wave of Ukrainian migration, the lion's share of which was to Europe. And while European countries, faced with an unprecedented influx of refugees, are withstanding the socio-economic burden with dignity, Ukraine has found itself in a demographic catastrophe. The wave of forced migration coincided with long-term demographic problems: a decline in the birth rate, an increase in the number of middle-aged people, and the outflow of population during the war. All these processes will have a steady impact on global migration and political processes. New instruments of state and global regulation of these processes will be required. They will also require the formation of a new paradigm of global economic development. The authors aim to deepen the study of the issue of identifying and assessing the preconditions and consequences of migration processes in the world under the influence of military operations in Ukraine. The paper examines the impact of migration processes on globalisation and economic processes in Europe and the world; the dynamics of the share of labour migrants in the total labour force by income level of destination countries in 2013, 2017, 2020; features of the migration wave of Ukrainians evacuated due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation in 2022; generalised statistical information on the migration processes of Ukrainians during the period of 01.02.2023 – 21.06.2023; detailed statistical data on the number of Ukrainian citizens abroad (as of 01.02.2023), broken down by migrant countries; political and socio-cultural context of the formation of a new paradigm of migration processes. The full implications for Ukrainian migration will be summarised after the war is over, but the following interim conclusions are relevant today. The analysis of migration processes in the world and Europe in the current context suggests that migration is actively taking place and contributes to the development of international integration, as it reduces the number of barriers and increases opportunities. The war in Ukraine will have a significant impact on the economy in terms of the following effects: disruption of global supply chains, increased inflationary pressures, higher energy and raw material prices; food prices will also increase as supplies of wheat and cereals from the Russian Federation and Ukraine are disrupted. and Ukraine have been disrupted; higher energy and commodity prices will cause further inflation, deteriorating economic prospects, reduced confidence and increased financial market risk associated with greater geopolitical tensions; worsening food security in some developing countries in the Middle East and Africa. On the other hand, migration is currently seen as a tool for long-term growth in the EU. The analysis shows that migration provides significant economic benefits, primarily to host countries. Today, the EU is facing a growing shortage of skilled labour due to unfavourable demographic trends in Europe. Given the massive emigration of Ukrainian citizens to the EU, migrants are solving the problem of staff shortages. This is especially true given that Ukrainian emigration provides for adequate social protection and legal support, which guarantees the right to settlement, work and education. The right to employment is readily exercised by Ukrainian migrants, as they are largely people of working age, primarily women. In general, it can be argued that the prospects for regional migration are currently linked to many factors and very uncertain prospects for a return to the pre-2022 or pre-pandemic models of the Eastern Partnership. The war in Ukraine is already escalating into a protracted conflict that will threaten both the economic situation of millions of people and the hopes of temporarily displaced Ukrainians to return home for a long time. As a result, displaced Ukrainians, their host EU countries, and the Ukrainian government will have to deal with the new circumstances, adapting temporary modalities to longer-term solutions.
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