Survival and predictors of mortality among HIV-infected adults after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Eastern Ethiopia Governmental hospitals, from January 2015 to December 2021 (multi-center retrospective follow-up study)

Abstract

Abstract Background Human Immune Deficiency Virus (HIV) remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. It can lead to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), which results in gradual deterioration and failure of the immune system. As the immune system becomes compromised, the patient becomes highly susceptible to life-threatening infection which ends with early death. Even though Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) significantly decreases mortality as a whole, the rate of death is still the highest, especially in the first and second years of ART initiation. The study aims to assess the survival and predictors of mortality among HIV-infected adults after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Jigjiga City Governmental Hospitals, Eastern Ethiopia. Method Institution-based Retrospective follow-up study was employed among ART patients from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021. Data were cleaned and entered in Epi-data version 3.1 and exported to STATA 14 for further analysis. Kaplan–Meier and Log-Rank tests were applied to compare survival differences among categories of different variables. In bi-variable analysis, P-values < 0.20 were included in a multivariable analysis. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to measure the risk of death identify the and significant predictors of death. Variables that a P-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant predictors of mortality. Result In this study 466(53.34%) participants were male and 552(65.56%) were urban residents about 91(10.81%) have died with an overall incidence rate of 3.92 (95% CI (2.43–5.41)) per 100-person year of observation. The overall survival probability of the study group was 83.97%. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, baseline World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV (AHR = 2.42(1.43–4.09)) have no caregiver (AHR = 2.23; 95% CI (1.16–4.29)), being bedridden functional status (AHR = 2.18; 95% CI (1.01–4.72)), and poor last known adherence level (AHR = 4.23; 95%CI (2.39–7.47)) were found to be significant predictors of mortality. Conclusion The incidence of death was relatively high, especially in the second year of ART. Baseline clinical WHO stage III/IV, bedridden functional status at enrolment, and absence of caregiver, poor level of recent adherence were found to be independent predictors of mortality. Patients with these risk factors need special attention and are crucial to reducing the rate of mortality.

Keywords

• Adults
• Mortality
• Antiretroviral therapy (ART)
• HIV/AIDS
• Jigjiga Ethiopia