Factors affecting the ORR after neoadjuvant therapy of TP regimen combined with PD-1 inhibitors for esophageal cancer

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study is to evaluate the factors affecting the objective response rate (ORR) after neoadjuvant therapy of taxol plus platinum (TP) regimen combined with programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitors for esophageal cancer, and establish a predictive model for forecasting ORR. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, consecutive esophageal cancer patients who were treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University from January 2020 to February 2022 were enrolled in this study as a training cohort, while patients who were treated in the Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi’an Jiaotong University from January 2020 to December 2021 were enrolled as a validation cohort. All patients were treated with resectable locally advanced esophageal cancer and received neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with immunotherapy. The ORR was defined as the sum of complete pathological response, major pathological response and partial pathological response. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the factors that might be related to the ORR of the patients after neoadjuvant therapy. The nomogram based on the result of regression analysis was established and verified to predict the ORR. In this study, 42 patients were included as training cohort and 53 patients were included as validation cohort. Chi-square analysis showed that neutrophil, platelet, platelet-to-lymphocytes ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), D-dimer and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) between ORR group and non-ORR group were significantly different. Logistic regression analysis showed that aspartate aminotransferase (AST), D-dimer and CEA were independent predictors of ORR after neoadjuvant immunotherapy. Finally, a nomogram was established based on AST, D-dimer and CEA. Internal validation and external validation revealed that the nomogram had a good ability to predict ORR after neoadjuvant immunotherapy. In conclusion, AST, D-dimer and CEA were the independent predictors of ORR after neoadjuvant immunotherapy. The nomogram based on these three indicators showed a good predictive ability.