Spatial Spillovers of Financial Risk and Their Dynamic Evolution: Evidence from Listed Financial Institutions in China

Abstract

This paper investigates the multidimensional spatial effects of risk spillovers among Chinese financial institutions and the dynamic evolution of financial risk contagion in the tail risk correlation network over different time periods. We first measure risk spillovers from financial submarkets to the stock market, identifying five periods using structural breakpoint tests. Then, we construct a spatial error financial network panel model by combining complex network and spatial econometric theory to explore the spatial spillover variability. Finally, we calculate the Bonacich centrality of nodes in the tail risk network and analyze the dynamic evolution of the financial impact path during the different time periods. The results show that the multidimensional spatial spillovers of financial risk among financial institutions are obvious and time varying. The spatial spillovers of financial institutions are positively correlated with the turnover rate and negatively correlated with the exchange rate, interest rate and return volatility. Financial institutions of the same type in the tail risk network display intraindustry risk clustering, and the systemically important institutions identified based on Bonacich centrality differ significantly across time. Moreover, when risk spillovers increase, external shocks’ destructive power and speed of transmission to the network rise.

Keywords

• spatial spillovers
• structural mutation test
• spatial econometrics
• tail risk network
• bonacich centrality
• financial impact