Influence of a Modulated Parameter on Hantavirus Infection

Abstract

We study the dynamical behavior of a model commonly used to describe the infection of mice due to hantavirus (and, therefore, its possibility of propagation into human populations) when a parameter is changed in time. In particular, we study the situation when the ecological conditions (e.g., climate benignity, food availability, and so on) change periodically in time. We show that the density of infected mice increases abruptly as the parameter crosses a critical value. We correlate such a situation with the observed sudden outbreaks of hantavirus. Finally, we discuss the possibility of preventing a hantavirus epidemic.

Keywords

• nonlinear dynamics
• delay bifurcation
• population dynamics