The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Consumer Credit Market in Eurozone Countries

Abstract

Theoretical background: The problem of the impact of the pandemic on the consumer credit market in Eurozone countries is important both from a cognitive point of view and from the perspective of economic practice. The current state of knowledge on the consumer credit market situation in Eurozone countries is incomplete. It is more common to find works concentrating on the effect of the pandemic on the consumer credit regulations, on the banking sector, or on evaluation of the consumer credit market situation in selected Eurozone countries, selected European countries or Europe as a whole. As a result, many accounts of the impact of the pandemic on consumer credit can be found, but there are no studies presenting the situation of the consumer credit market in Eurozone countries during COVID-19 in a comprehensive and integrated manner, simultaneously combining theoretical aspects and research results. Purpose of the article: This study has two objectives. The main objective was to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the value of consumer credit in Eurozone countries. The specific objective was to examine the dynamics and directions of changes in the value of consumer credit during the pandemic in the Eurozone. The study hypothesis is that COVID-19 has determined the amount of household consumer credit debt in Eurozone countries, but that the determinants of this debt and the direction and strength of their impact are diverse. Research methods: The achievement of the objectives and hypothesis verification was based on a critical analysis of source texts and on quantitative research, in which time series analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used. Main findings: It has been proven that the pandemic has influenced the tendency of households to take out credit, as well as the propensity of banks to grant credit, and that it therefore has affected the behaviour of both borrowers and lenders. We also showed that in periods of increased COVID-19 transmission, there was a low propensity for using credit, while in periods of relative suppression of COVID-19 symptoms, this tendency increased. It also has been proven that COVID-19 has unevenly affected the value of loans across countries. A significant difference was observed in the strength of the impact of individual independent variables on the value of consumer credit in the Eurozone, as well as a different direction of correlation between the variables. Moreover, significant differences were found in the number of variables influencing the value of consumer loans in individual Eurozone countries.

Keywords

• consumer credit market
• household
• covid-19
• pandemic
• eurozone countries