Estimation of Daily Reproduction Numbers during the COVID-19 Outbreak
Jacques Demongeot,
Kayode Oshinubi,
Mustapha Rachdi,
Hervé Seligmann,
Florence Thuderoz,
Jules Waku
Affiliations
Jacques Demongeot
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France
Kayode Oshinubi
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France
Mustapha Rachdi
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France
Hervé Seligmann
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France
Florence Thuderoz
Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France
Jules Waku
UMMISCO UMI IRD 209 & LIRIMA, University of Yaoundé I, P.O. Box 337, Yaoundé 999108, Cameroon
(1) Background: The estimation of daily reproduction numbers throughout the contagiousness period is rarely considered, and only their sum R0 is calculated to quantify the contagiousness level of an infectious disease. (2) Methods: We provide the equation of the discrete dynamics of the epidemic’s growth and obtain an estimation of the daily reproduction numbers by using a deconvolution technique on a series of new COVID-19 cases. (3) Results: We provide both simulation results and estimations for several countries and waves of the COVID-19 outbreak. (4) Discussion: We discuss the role of noise on the stability of the epidemic’s dynamics. (5) Conclusions: We consider the possibility of improving the estimation of the distribution of daily reproduction numbers during the contagiousness period by taking into account the heterogeneity due to several host age classes.
