Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs) to evaluate the uncertainty quantitively. However, few studies have applied PIs to geographically distributed PVs in a specific area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. When individual PV generation is forecasted, the proposed scheme utilizes surrounding PVs’ past data to train the ensemble forecasting model. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.

Keywords

• photovoltaic generation forecast
• probabilistic forecast
• prediction interval
• ensemble forecast
• day ahead forecasting
• multiple PV forecasting