Consequences of the war in Ukraine on the Arctic: an analysis of post-conflict macro-scenarios

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened a Pandora’s box with certain global consequences. From the beginning of the invasion, the first effects on government, research and economic activities also appeared. This conflict has radically changed the dynamics of security in the Arctic. The deterioration, unprecedented since the end of the Cold War, in relations between Russia and the West has meant that cooperation between the two blocs has also disappeared in the main and perhaps the only region of the globe still spared from political tensions. The outbreak of the conflict led to a breakdown in cooperation and an escalation of military tensions in the Arctic. How these disputes end will be decisive in determining the Arctic region’s future political and strategic balances.The seven remaining Arctic states denounced Russia’s operation in Ukraine from the start, thus suspending all activities related to the Arctic Council. This is an immediate consequence and it indicates rapid and challenging changes for Arctic governance.

Keywords

• Russian victory;
• Ukrainian victory;
• stalemate
• ; special military operation
• Russian-Ukrainian war;
• Arctic;