Международная аналитика (May 2021)
The Open End of the War of Yugoslav Legacy: the Consequences of the Dissolution of the SFRY Three Decades Later
Abstract
The article examines the dynamics and prospects of resolving the main confl icts in the Western Balkans three decades after the collapse of Yugoslavia. The most important factors infl uencing the confl ict dynamics in the region are ethnonationalism, ethnic homogenization and external interference. Western intervention made it possible to stop hostilities, but at the same time it actually consolidated the results of ethnic homogenization. The Serbo-Croatian confl ict is close to its exhaustion due to the actual support of the West for Operation “Storm” (1995), the exodus of more than 200 thousand Serbs from Croatia, the integration of Croatia into NATO and the European Union. Despite the negative burden of historical memory, both Zagreb and Belgrade in bilateral relations are increasingly guided by political pragmatism and balanced assessments of the qualitatively changed situation. Against this background, the Dayton model of state structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina, built on the basis of institutional transactions of actors representing competing ethnocultural communities, demonstrates its dysfunctionality. The interaction and cooperation of these actors remain largely limited, carried out under external control and pressure. Regarding the structure of the article, the author, fi rst, discusses some general issues contributing to the enduring confl ict in the Western Balkans; second, the article examines the prospects of antagonism between the Serbs and Croats; third, I analyze the impact of the Dayton Accords on the post-Yugoslav space. I conclude that scenarios for the future of the Western Balkans, to which the European Union and the United States are oriented, do not lead to the elimination of the causes of major confl icts in the post-Yugoslav space and obviously diverge in essential points from the images of the desired future that correspond to the aspirations of a signifi cant part of the population in the region.
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