Factor analysis of forest product price trends

Abstract

The article considers some macroeconomic indicators that are potentially factors of price changes of forest industrial products using econometric methods. The study also determines the extent of influence of these factors on price values. The results of the analysis give an idea about trends in price changes of the forest industry complex, describing trends and market structure, and forecast price models of products of forest industry complex. In the construction of a forecast model for forest complex production, the multicollinearity of the macroeconomic factors considered, which presumably form the prices for products of the wood industry (plywood, hardwoods and softwood lumber) was taken into account. The price values of the Shanghai Stock Exchange were taken as a determining factor for the analysis of the dynamic series. The macroeconomic indicators of the North-West Federal District were considered as hypothetical effects on forest prices: currency exchange rate, GDP, population size, average per capita income, labour force size, inflation, reforestation. After correlation and regression analysis, four main factors were identified that shape the price of forest products selected for research (currency, population, per capita income, reforestation rate). This model can be used to determine the forecast values for forest products prices. Its availability is important for further development of proposals and measures aimed at regulating the values of the identified factors with a view to further manipulation of the prices of the forest industry complex, since their dynamics depend on them, including the country’s budget revenues. In the current conditions related to overcoming external sanctions barriers, it is particularly important to find additional sources of income for the federal budget.