Assessing critical population thresholds under periodic disturbances

Abstract

Abstract Population responses to repeated environmental or anthropogenic disturbances depend on complicated interactions between the disturbance regime, population structure, and differential stage susceptibility. Using a matrix modeling approach, we develop a methodological framework to explore how the interplay of these factors impacts critical population thresholds. To illustrate the wide applicability of this approach, we present two case studies pertaining to agroecosystems and conservation science. We apply sensitivity analysis to the two case studies to examine how population and disturbance properties affect these thresholds. Contrasting outcomes between these two applications, including differences in how factors such as disturbance intensity and pre‐disturbance population distributions impact population responses, highlight the importance of accounting for demographic features when performing ecological risk assessments.

Keywords

• agroecosystem models
• conservation science
• critical population thresholds
• integrated pest management
• matrix population models
• periodic disturbances