Guangdong nongye kexue (Jan 2023)
Analysis of Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Vegetable Production in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
Abstract
【Objective】There is a large population and strong demand for vegetables in Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area(hereinafter called "the Greater Bay Area"). The evolution of vegetable production pattern and its influencing factors are studied in order to provide references for the spatial layout optimization and high-quality development of vegetable industry in the Greater Bay Area.【Method】The global autocorrelation indexes of vegetable gross outputs of each year were calculated to judge the regional correlation of vegetable production by using the statistical data at counties of the Greater Bay Area from 2010 to 2020 and the administrative map of the same year. The aggregation area of vegetable production and its spatial pattern evolution in counties were analyzed by local autocorrelation index. Spatial regression model was used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting vegetable production under spatial correlation.【Result】From 2012 to 2020, the global autocorrelation index passes the test and the value is greater than 0, indicating that the vegetable production at county level forms a positive spatial correlation pattern, and the vegetable production has a certain degree of aggregation in space and increases with inter-annual changes. Through local spatial autocorrelation test and analysis, it is found that vegetable production areas such as Longmen county, Boluo county and Huicheng district shows a high-high aggregation pattern, and gradually forms an aggregation pattern in the northeast of the Greater Bay Area over time. The high-low and low-high spatial patterns of vegetable production are gradually affected by the positive correlation of adjacent areas, and finally forms the same pattern with the surrounding areas. Through the analysis of spatial regression model, it is found that the main factors affecting vegetable production are land, economic level, labor force and agricultural technology input in 2012. After 2016, the main influencing factor is land, while the influence of other factors is not obvious or significant, indicating that the expansion of vegetable planting scale is the first factor of yield increase.【Conclusion】There is a positive spatial correlation in vegetable production in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and gradually forms an industrial core area. In the future, it is necessary to increase investment in agricultural science and technology in the core areas of vegetable production such as Boluo, Longmen, Huicheng and Conghua, to further improve the modernization level of production, continuously drive the surrounding areas to improve the comprehensive industrial benefits, and promote the high-quality development of the vegetable industry.
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