Methods of analyzing and assessing economic and financial risks

Abstract

The paper is structured in four sections. The first section defines the notions of risk and failure, highlighting the differences between them. The second section presents the typology of risks by classifying them into classes according to criteria relating mainly to the areas in which they occur: natural and climatic, financial, legal, professional. The third section presents the ways to analyze and evaluate risks, emphasizes the role of the critical matrix, and reviews the most commonly used risk assessment methods: Osborn Brainstorming, Delphi, Abaque de Régnier, BISF method (breakdowns, the importance of the equipment, the state of the process and its function, RCM (reliability centered maintenance), Ishikiwa. The fourth section describes the most common methods and tools currently applied in analyzing and assessing economic risks, following the main features in which events must fit to ensure dependability: reliability, maintainability; availability; safety. Among semi-empirical instruments are mentioned: Preliminary risk analysis; Global risk analysis; Fault Analysis and Effects Analysis; Hazard and Operability Studies; Functional analysis, as well as logical tools such as Markov chains and Petri networks. Methods based on system modeling are also presented: Methodology of analysis of systems dysfunction - systemic organized risk analysis method; probabilistic modeling of dynamic systems, based on Monte-Carlo simulation, Layer of Protection Analysis; the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point method. In conclusion, the international standards and European directives on risk assessment, prevention and reporting are presented: The ISO / IEC 31010: 2009 risk assessment standard includes several tools for managing risk factors; Seveso Directive (2012/18 EU Directive of 4 July 2012) common policies on the prevention of major industrial risks; Directive 2008/1 / EC on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control.