The Space Weather Context of the First Extreme Event of Solar Cycle 25, on 2022 September 5

Abstract

The coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2022 September 5 was the fastest CME yet observed and measured in situ by a spacecraft inside the corona (0.06 au for the Parker Solar Probe). Here we assess the significance of this event for space weather studies by analyzing the source region characteristics and its temporal evolution via a magnetic complexity index. We also examine the kinematics and energetics of the CME. We find that it was a very fast and massive event, with a speed greater than 2200 km s ^−1 and a mass of 2 × 10 ^16 g. Consequently, this is within the top 1% of all CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO since 1996. It is therefore natural to ask, “What if this CME was an Earth-directed one?” To answer this question, we put the CME and the associated flare properties in the context of similar previous extreme events (namely, the 2012 July 23 and 2012 March 7 eruptions), discussing the possibility that these trigger a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. We find that 2022 September 5 could have resulted in a high-energy SEP event. We also estimate the transit time and speed of the CME and calculate the likely Dst variations if this was an Earth-directed event.

Keywords

• Space weather
• Solar coronal mass ejections
• Solar coronal mass ejection shocks
• Solar energetic particles
• Heliosphere