Timber production possibilities and capital yields from the Norwegian forest area

Abstract

How intensely should a forest be grown? This is a fundamental question in the process of formulating policy guidelines for the management of a forest area, both at the individual property level as well as at the national level. The question is related to a number of factors; the objective(s) of the forest owner, the productivity of the forestland, the initial growing stock, the accessibility within the forest, assumptions regarding future prices and costs and the required real rate of return. This paper presents an applied analysis with the objective of mapping possible future paths for the growing stock on, and timber harvest from the productive forest area in Norway. The analysis is deterministic. The regeneration strategy is a key factor for the long run development of a forest and is thus given particular attention. The analysis is restricted to deal with timber production only and maximisation of the net present value of the forest area is used as the objective function. The required real rate of return is varied and used as the driving force to find the best (optimal) level of intensity in silvicultural management and thus optimal paths for harvesting and growing stocks.