Aftermath of climate change on Bangladesh economy: an analysis of the dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Abstract

Climate change is widely acknowledged as a serious threat to global development, and Bangladesh is no exception; without a doubt, global warming has placed Bangladesh among the most vulnerable countries. The motivation behind this paper is to examine the effects of climate change by taking into account the changes in temperature and precipitation over time. This paper first evaluates the climate change impact on crop production by using a crop modeling framework and then constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The result of this study finds that average gross domestic product (GDP) decreases by −6.17% and investment declines by −7.76% due to the climate change impact. The impacts of climate change on rice sectors were felt more intensely, increasing prices by 5.82 and 8.11%, reducing output by −3.08 and −3.7% collectively in 2030 and 2050. The agricultural sectors’ output declined more compared to the manufacturing, mining and gas, construction, service and transportation sectors, which indicates declines in agricultural labor and household income. In conclusion, the impact of climate change by analyzing the computable general equilibrium model in Bangladesh had been paid little attention in the past and this paper tried to fill the gaps and provide policy-makers with crucial information and guide government policies. HIGHLIGHTS Develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate how climate change may influence Bangladesh's economy by and large.; Significant decline observed in GDP, consumption, investment, savings, household income, export, and output.; Agricultural sectors shrank more compared to other sectors in the economy.;

Keywords

• bangladesh
• climate change
• computable general equilibrium model
• economic policy
• social accounting matrix