The sustainable use of groundwater resources concerning further climate change scenarios in Ulaanbaatar City Area, Mongolia

Abstract

To estimate groundwater resources under changing climate is one of the important issues for Ulaanbaatar City in the Tuul river basin of Mongolia. The main water supply is provided from groundwater and demand has been increasing due to the rapid growth of population and economic development. There have not been any complete studies to assess climate change impact on groundwater resources for Ulaanbaatar city. Therefore, in this study we proposed to estimate future potential resources of the groundwater from the main wellfields in the city using the AnAqSim (Analytic Aquifer Simulator) model. The model calibration was performed on 10 wellfields during the reference period from 1960 to 2015. Based on the reliable calibration results for the natural conditions, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources was assessed to use the projected HadCM3 scenario for the periods 2046–2065 and 2080–2099. The results of the study contribute to a water management plan for the city to recommend seasonal abstraction. HIGHLIGHTS AnAqSim is one of the potential tools to assess climate change impact on groundwater resources.; The groundwater resources for the ten wellfields of the Upper Tuul river basin are reasonably modeled and re-estimated using the AnAqSim.; The wellfields of the upper and downstream side of the Upper Tuul river will be more sensitive to climate change.;

Keywords

• anaqsim
• climate change scenario
• groundwater sources
• tuul river
• ulaanbaatar city