Broadband Strong-Motion Prediction for Future Nankai-Trough Earthquakes Using Statistical Green’s Function Method and Subsequent Building Damage Evaluation

Abstract

We used the Green’s function summation method together with the randomly perturbed asperity sources to sum up broadband statistical Green’s functions of a moderate-size source and predict strong ground motions due to the expected M8.1 to 8.7 Nankai-Trough earthquakes along the southern coast of western Japan. We successfully simulated seismic intensity distributions similar to the past earthquakes and strong ground motions similar to the empirical attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration and velocity. Using these results, we predicted building damage by non-linear response analyses and find that at the regions close to the source, as well as regions with relatively thick, soft sediments such as the shoreline and alluvium valleys along the rivers, there is a possibility of severe damage regardless of the types of buildings. Moreover, the predicted damage ratios for buildings built before 1981 are much higher than those built after because of the significant code modifications in 1981. We also find that the damage ratio is highest for steel buildings, followed by wooden houses, and then reinforced concrete buildings.

Keywords

• strong motion
• Green’s function summation
• asperity
• ground motion modeling
• damage prediction
• subduction-zone earthquake