Smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change and variability: Evidence from three agroecologies in the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study delves into the profound impact of climate change on agriculture in Ethiopia, particularly the vulnerabilities faced by smallholder farmers and the resulting implications for poverty. Focusing on three distinct agroecologies, namely: highland, midland, and lowland zones. The study employed a robust methodology, combining a cross-sectional survey, spatial-temporal trend analysis using GIS, and the development of an overall vulnerability index through the balanced weighted average method. The study, encompassing 646 households, combines data from a variety of sources and analytical tools like the vulnerability index, ArcGIS 10.8, and ERDA's IMAGINE 2015. Utilizing the LVI-IPCC scale, the study shows that climate change is an immediate vulnerability in all agroecological zones. It identifies highland areas as the most sensitive and exposed regions, while lowland households are found to be the most vulnerable in terms of overall vulnerabilities. The research reveals specific challenges faced by communities, such as inadequate health facilities and insufficient food and water supplies in both highland and lowland agroecosystems. Additionally, our investigation has observed a significant alteration in land use practices, specifically the shift from communal grazing land to private cultivation and plantations, emphasizing eucalyptus. This alteration enhances the ecosystem's vulnerability to climate disturbances. The study suggests targeted interventions, such as advocating for sustainable land-use practices, afforestation, and adopting climate-smart agriculture practices. It is important to implement policy measures that prioritize conserving and restoring shrubland, grazing land, and natural forests to ensure both long-term socio-economic and ecosystem resilience. The study's nuanced insights are instrumental in understanding the diverse challenges posed by climate change in Ethiopian agriculture, supporting informed policymaking and sustainable interventions.

Keywords

• Vulnerability index
• Livelihoods
• Ecosystem sensitivity
• Adaptive capacity
• Exposure