Assessing the Effects of Oil Revenue Investment Policies on Macroeconomics Variables in Iran: the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks in macro-economic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with features such as the needs of infrastructure development and the existence of public investment inefficiencies and its comparison with Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH model). The results show that oil revenue shock has increased consumption, government current and capital spending and has reduced inflation in the short run, although has increased in the medium term due to the demand side push. The results revealed that the National Development Fund and consequently the Fund's concessional facilities to the private sector has been raised. In addition, because of the structure of the economy that was largely unproductive and the government activity in the economy would lead to crowding out effect, the oil revenue growth has little effect on the growth of non-oil producing sector. More over, each of the productivity and monetary shocks in the model has resulted the same theoretical expectations. Results also show that the implementation of fiscal policy based on PIH Scenario has better effects on macroeconomic variables in comparison with the business as usual scenario.