Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence

Abstract

The scope of the present investigation is to provide a description of final electricity prices development in the context of deregulated electricity markets in EU28, up to 2020. We introduce a new methodology to predict long-term electricity market prices consisting of two parts: (1) a self-developed form of Porter’s five forces analysis (PFFA) determining that electricity markets are characterized by a fairly steady price increase. Dominant driving factors come out to be: (i) uncertainty of future electricity prices; (ii) regulatory complexity; and (iii) generation overcapacities. Similar conclusions derive from (2) a self-developed form of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this case, we find that the electricity market particularly depends on (i) market liberalization and (ii) the European Union (EU)’s economy growth. The applied methodologies provide a novel contribution in forecasting electricity price trends, by analyzing the sentiments, expectations, and knowledge of industry experts, through an assessment of factors influencing the market price and goals of key market participants. An extensive survey was conducted, interviewing experts all over Europe showed that the electricity market is subject to a future slight price increase.

Keywords

• electricity market price
• Europe
• forecast
• long term
• Porter’s five forces analysis
• multiple-criteria decision analysis