Impact assessment of climate change at farm level: A methodological approach nased on integrated biophysical and economic models

Abstract

The dominant agricultural sector in Slovakia is crop production, with the majority of arable land dedicated to cultivating cereals (57%), followed by fodder crops (20%) and industrial crops (19%). Slovakia has technical and biophysical potential for expanding biomass production. However, it is crucial to identify optimal production practices, alternative costs, and environmental outputs. Farms become more vulnerable to the worldwide threat posed by climate change. Based on research, farmers can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of climate change by making necessary adjustments to their current farming techniques. Thus, by using an advanced tool like integrated farm models, farmers can evaluate and manage a range of risks related to their activities. This paper aims to present the application of integrated modelling frameworks at the farm level and propose a framework for studying the consequences of climate change through a scenario-based approach at the farm level. Integrated assessments provide new insights that complement those derived from more detailed assessments. Based on the model developed, the results of two research questions are provided. Since, from the viewpoint of the farmer, risk and unpredictability associated with lower yields are frequently the main causes of lower income, spatially explicit integrated modelling is applied, enabling economic optimisation of crop production on a selected farm with a focus on maximising net returns while considering biophysical parameters. The modelling results depict the distribution of selected crops on arable land and the most suitable management practices for crop production in terms of nitrogen application and irrigation utilisation. Additionally, we develop an integrated model proposing the estimation of the risk of yield variability and nitrogen emissions for three climate change scenarios for the simulated period of 2020-2100 on the model farm. In response to the problems posed by climate change, this integrated approach can assist evidence-based decision-making and sustainable agriculture practices.

Keywords

• climate change scenarios
• crop production management
• farm model
• integrated modelling framework